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The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels

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Author Info
Fernando Alvarez
Urban J. Jermann

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Abstract

We derive a lower bound for the size of the permanent component of asset pricing kernels. The bound is based on return properties of long-term zero-coupon bonds, risk-free bonds, and other risky securities. We find the permanent component of the pricing kernel to be very large; its volatility is about 100% of the volatility of the stochastic discount factor. This result implies that, if the pricing kernel is a function of consumption, innovations to consumption need to have permanent effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8360.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8360

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kazemi, Hossein B, 1992. "An Intertemporal Model of Asset Prices in a Markov Economy with a Limiting Stationary Distribution," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 85-104. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-60, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Efficiency, Equilibrium, and Asset Pricing with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 775-798, July.
  9. Hansen, Gary D., 1997. "Technical progress and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1005-1023, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Bansal, Ravi & Lehmann, Bruce N., 1997. "Growth-Optimal Portfolio Restrictions On Asset Pricing Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 333-354, June. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2001. "The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels," NBER Working Papers 8360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hanno Lustig, 2001. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," Finance 0111004, EconWPA, revised 16 Nov 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "A Theory of Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 10955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alvarez, Fernando & Jermann, Urban J., 2001. "The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels," Working Papers 01-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns? (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 322, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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