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Consumption Strikes Back?: Measuring Long-Run Risk

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Author Info
Lars Peter Hansen
John Heaton
Nan Li

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Abstract

We characterize and measure a long-run risk return tradeoff for the valuation of financial cash flows that are exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This tradeoff features components of financial cash flows that are only realized far into the future but are still reflected in current asset values. We use the recursive utility model with empirical inputs from vector autoregressions to quantify this relationship; and we study the long-run risk differences in aggregate securities and in portfolios constructed based on the ratio of book equity to market equity. Finally, we explore the resulting measurement challenges and the implied sensitivity to alternative specifications of stochastic growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11476.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11476

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2007. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration of Risky Cash-Flows," NBER Working Papers 12912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lars Peter Hansen & Jose Scheinkman, 2006. "Long Term Risk: An Operator Approach," NBER Working Papers 12650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 13196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006. "A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests," NBER Working Papers 12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 283-300. [Downloadable!]
  13. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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