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Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors

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  • Smith, Peter
  • Wickens, Michael

Abstract

The stochastic discount factor model provides a general framework for pricing assets. By specifying the discount factor suitably it encompasses most of the theories currently in use, including CAPM and consumption CAPM. The SDF model has been based on the use of single and multiple factors, and on latent and observed factors. In most situations, and especially for the term structure, single factor models are inappropriate, whilst latent variables require the somewhat arbitrary specification of generating processes and are difficult to interpret. In this paper we survey the principal different implementations of the SDF model for FOREX, equity and bonds and we propose a new approach. This is based on the use of multiple factors that are observable and modelling the joint distribution of excess returns and the factors using a multi-variate GARCH-in-mean process. We argue that in general single equation and VAR models, although widely used in empirical finance, are inappropriate as they do not satisfy the no-arbitrage condition. Since risk premia arise from conditional covariation between returns and the factors, both a multi-variate context and having conditional covariances in the conditional mean process, is essential. We explain how apparent exceptions, such as the CIR and Vasicek models, in fact meet this requirement - but at a price. We explain our new approach, discuss how it might be implemented and present some empirical evidence, mainly from our own researches. Partly, to enable comparisons to be made, the survey also includes evidence from recent empirical work using more traditional approaches.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 397-446

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:397-446

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Cited by:
  1. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.
  2. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp297, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  3. Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn & Peter N. Smith & Michael R.Wickens, 2013. "What do the Fama-French factors add to CCAPM?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, . "An Asset Market Integration Test Based on Observable Macroeconomic Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 03/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  5. Vit Posta, 2012. "Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Capital Market: Did the Market Experience a Structural Shock in 2008–2009?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 450-470, November.
  6. Alexandros Kostakis, 2007. "Mind Coskewness: A Performance Measure for Prudent, Long-Term Investors," Discussion Papers 07/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
  7. Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn & Peter N. Smith & Michael R. Wickens, . "Consumption, Size and Book-to-Market Ratio in Equity Returns," Discussion Papers 11/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Peter Spencer, 2004. "Affine Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The US Treasury Market 1961-99," Discussion Papers 04/16, Department of Economics, University of York, revised Jan 2006.
  9. Peter N. Smith & Steffen Sorensen & Michael Wickens, 2010. "The equity premium and the business cycle: the role of demand and supply shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 134-152.
  10. Vít Pošta, 2012. "Estimation Of The Time-Varying Risk Premium In The Czech Foreign Exchange Market," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(1), pages 3-17.
  11. P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, . "Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk," Discussion Papers 03/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
  12. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp898, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  14. Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn & Peter N. Smith & Michael R. Wickens, . "A Cross Section of Equity Returns: The No-Arbitrage Test," Discussion Papers 11/23, Department of Economics, University of York.
  15. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.

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