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A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation

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Author Info
Thomas J. Flavin () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)
Michael R. Wickens (University of York, UK.)

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Abstract

This paper extends the tactical asset allocation strategy of Flavin and Wickens(1998) to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic variables in the analysis. Using a VAR in mean with a M-GARCH error structure, we can jointly model financial asset returns and macroeconomic variables, thereby exploiting any predictability in either the first- or second-order moments. Taking a set of UK\ financial assets and the change in domestic inflation as an illustration, we find a much stronger impact on the conditional second order moments of the process than on the level of the excess return on financial assets. Taking the inflation effect into account generates portfolio frontiers that in general lie closer to the origin and therefore offer superior risk-return combinations to the investor.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n1080301.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1080301

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Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://www.may.ie/academic/economics/
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Related research
Keywords: Asset allocation; macroeconomic effects; M-GARCH;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  6. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-38, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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  15. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. ": A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n851298, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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  21. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-80, August.
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    Other versions:
  23. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mike R Wickens & Peter N Smith, . "Macroeconmic Sources of FOREX Risk," Discussion Papers 01/13, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Thomas J. Flavin & Michele G. Limosani, 2000. "Explaining European Short-term Interest Rate Differentials: An Application of Tobin's Portfolio Theory," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1000500, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. ": A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n851298, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. "Optimal International Asset Allocation and Home Bias," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n841298, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  5. Flavin, Thomas & Wickens, Michael R, 2002. "Macroeconomic Influences on Optimal Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 2000. "Global Asset Allocation with Time-varying Risk," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1020800, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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