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Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models

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  • Qiang Dai
  • Kenneth J. Singleton
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    Abstract

    This paper characterizes, interprets, and tests the over-identifying restrictions imposed in affine models of the term" structure. Letting r(t) = ë Y(t), where Y is an unobserved vector affine process, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we show that affine models can be categorized according to the different over-identifying restrictions they impose on (i) ë, and (ii) the parameters of the diffusion matrices. Second, this formulation is shown to be equivalent to a model in which there is a terraced drift structure with one of the state variables being the stochastic long-run mean of r. This equivalence allows direct comparisons of the substantive restrictions on the dynamics of interest rates imposed in CIR-style models and models in which the state variables are the stochastic long-run mean and volatility of r. Third, we compute simulated method of moments estimates of a three-factor affine term structure model, and test the over-identifying restrictions on the joint distribution of long- and short-term interest rates implied by extant affine models of r. We find allowing for correlated factors is key to simultaneously describing the short and long ends of the yield curve. This finding is interpreted in terms of the properties of the risk factors underlying term structure movements.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6128.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6128.

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    Date of creation: Aug 1997
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    Publication status: published as Dai, Qiang and Kenneth J. Singleton. "Specification Analysis Of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, 2000, v55(5,Oct), 1943-1978.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6128

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    1. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
    3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
    4. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    5. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1997. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor in Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 6325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    7. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, . "Discrete time models of bond pricing," GSIA Working Papers 251, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    2. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
    3. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-037-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    4. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    5. Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 1999. "The Potential Approach to Bond and Currency Pricing," Finance 9903004, EconWPA.
    6. Driessen, J.J.A.G. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T.E., 1999. "Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs," Discussion Paper 1999-84, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Mc Manus, Des & Watt, David, 1999. "Estimating One-Factor Models of Short-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 99-18, Bank of Canada.
    8. Fang, Victor & Muljono, Ronny, 2003. "An empirical analysis of the Australian dollar swap spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 153-173, April.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andrew Jeffrey & Linton, Oliver Linton & Thong Nguyen & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1311, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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