A Semiparametric Factor Model Of Interest Rates And Tests Of The Affine Term Structure
AbstractMany continuous-time term structure of interest rate models assume a factor structure where the drift and volatility functions are affine functions of the state-variable process. These models involve very specific parametric choices of factors and functional specifications of the drift and volatility. Moreover, under the affine term structure restrictions not all factors necessarily affect interest rates at all maturities simultaneously. This class of so-called affine models covers a wide variety of existing empirical as well as theoretical models in the literature. In this paper we take a very agnostic approach to the specification of these diffusion functions and test implications of the affine term structure restrictions. We do not test a specific model among the class of affine models per se. Instead, the affine term structure restrictions we test are based on the derivatives of the responses of interest rates to the factors. We also test how many and which factors affect a particular rate. These tests are conducted within a framework which models interest rates as functions of "fundamental" factors, and the responses of interest rates to these factors are estimated with nonparametric methods. We consider two sets of factors, one based on key macroeconomic variables, and one based on interest rate spreads. In general, despite their common use we find that the empirical evidence does not support the restrictions imposed by affine models. Besides testing the affine structure restrictions we also uncover a set of fundamental factors which appear remarkably robust in explaining interest rate dynamics at the long and short maturities we consider. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Eric Ghysels & Serena Ng, 1997. "A Semi-Parametric Factor Model of Interest Rates and Tests of the Affine Term Structure," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-33, CIRANO.
- Eric Ghysels & Serena Ng, 1998. "A Semi-Parametric Factor Model of Interest Rates and Tests of the Affine Term Structure," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 403, Boston College Department of Economics.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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