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Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Two Classes of Semiparametric Diffusion Models

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  • Dennis Kristensen

    (Columbia University and CREATES)

Abstract

A novel estimation method for two classes of semiparametric scalar diffusion models is proposed: In the first class, the diffusion term is parameterised and the drift is left unspecified, while in the second class only the drift term is specified. Under the assumption of stationarity, the unspecified term can be identified as a functional of the parametric component and the stationary density. Given a discrete sample with a fixed time distance, the parametric component is then estimated by maximizing the associated likelihood with a preliminary estimator of the unspecified term plugged in. It is shown that this Pseudo-MLE (PMLE) is root n-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under regularity conditions, and demonstrate how the models and estimators can be used in a two-step specification testing strategy of fully parametric models. Since the likelihood function is not available on closed form, the practical implementation of our estimator and tests will rely on simulated or approximate PMLE's. Under regularity conditions, it is verified that approximate/simulated versions of the PMLE inherits the properties of the actual but infeasible estimator. A simulation study investigates the finite-sample performance of the PMLE, and finds that it performs well and is comparable to parametric MLE both in terms of bias and variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Kristensen, 2009. "Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Two Classes of Semiparametric Diffusion Models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-41, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-41
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    2. Bu, Ruijun & Kim, Jihyun & Wang, Bin, 2023. "Uniform and Lp convergences for nonparametric continuous time regressions with semiparametric applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1934-1954.
    3. Kanaya, Shin, 2017. "Uniform Convergence Rates Of Kernel-Based Nonparametric Estimators For Continuous Time Diffusion Processes: A Damping Function Approach," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 874-914, August.
    4. Kanaya, Shin & Kristensen, Dennis, 2016. "Estimation Of Stochastic Volatility Models By Nonparametric Filtering," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 861-916, August.
    5. Bu, Ruijun & Hadri, Kaddour & Kristensen, Dennis, 2021. "Diffusion copulas: Identification and estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 616-643.
    6. Bu, Ruijun & Cheng, Jie & Hadri, Kaddour, 2016. "Reducible diffusions with time-varying transformations with application to short-term interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 266-277.
    7. Kristensen, Dennis, 2011. "Semi-nonparametric estimation and misspecification testing of diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 382-403, October.
    8. Seungmoon Choi, 2015. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Models for Korean Short-Term Interest Rates," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 21(4), pages 28-58, December.
    9. Ruijun Bu & Jihyun Kim & Bin Wang, 2020. "Uniform and Lp Convergences of Nonparametric Estimation for Diffusion Models," Working Papers 202021, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    10. Chen, Qiang & Zheng, Xu & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2015. "Asymptotically distribution-free tests for the volatility function of a diffusion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 124-144.
    11. Koo, Bonsoo & Linton, Oliver, 2012. "Estimation of semiparametric locally stationary diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 210-233.
    12. Zhang, Shulin & Song, Peter X.-K. & Shi, Daimin & Zhou, Qian M., 2012. "Information ratio test for model misspecification on parametric structures in stochastic diffusion models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 3975-3987.
    13. Chen, Bin & Song, Zhaogang, 2013. "Testing whether the underlying continuous-time process follows a diffusion: An infinitesimal operator-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 83-107.
    14. Dennis Kristensen, 2009. "Semiparametric Modelling and Estimation: A Selective Overview," CREATES Research Papers 2009-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Buchholz, Nicholas & Shum, Matthew & Xu, Haiqing, 2021. "Semiparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 312-327.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diffusion process; fixed-time distance asymptotics; kernel estimation; pseudo-likelihood; semiparametric;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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