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Two Factors along the Yield Curve

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  • Gong, Fangxiong
  • Remolona, Eli M
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    Abstract

    Are all two-factor, term-structure models the same? The authors specify three models and estimate each on different parts of the U.S. yield curve. The exercise provides insights on reconciling the term structure's time series with its cross section and on relating it to fundamentals. The authors' evidence favors models where one factor reverts to a time-varying mean. One such model explains shorter-term yields and another longer-term yields. The models differ primarily because mean reversion is much faster near the yield curve's short end than near its long end. The factors seem to capture mean reversion in inflation and the Fed's target rate. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.

    Volume (Year): 65 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 0 (Supplement)
    Pages: 1-31

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:65:y:1997:i:0:p:1-31

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    Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
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    Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/disciplines/economics/
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    Cited by:
    1. Dong Heon Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0528, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Fendel, Ralf, 2004. "Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    6. Peter Spencer, 2004. "Affine Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The US Treasury Market 1961-99," Discussion Papers 04/16, Department of Economics, University of York, revised Jan 2006.
    7. R.C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate-Futures Prices," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-045, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    8. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.

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