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Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics David K. Backus
Stanley E. Zin
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Prices of riskfree bonds in any arbitrage-free environment are governed by a pricing kernel: given a kernel, we can compute prices of bonds of any maturity we like. We use observed prices of multi-period bonds to estimate, in a log-linear theoretical setting, the pricing kernel that gave rise to them. The high-order dynamics of our estimated kernel help to explain why first-order, one-factor models of the term structure have had difficulty reconciling the shape of the yield curve with the persistence of the short rate. We use the estimated kernel to provide a new perspective on Hansen-Jagannathan bounds, the price of risk, and the pricing of bond options and futures.
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Date of creation: Mar 1994Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4676Note: APContact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A. Phone: 617-868-3900 Email: Web page: http://www.nber.org More information through EDIRC
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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Recursive Macroeconomic Theory
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