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Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts

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Author Info
Ravi Bansal (Fuqua School of Business at Duke University,)
Hao Zhou (Federal Reserve Board in Washington, DC)

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Abstract

We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well-documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles. Copyright The American Finance Association 2002.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 1997-2043
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:5:p:1997-2043

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  1. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2001. "Expectation Puzzles, Time-varying Risk Premia, and Dynamic Models of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Monica Gentile & Roberto Renò, 2002. "Which Model for the Italian Interest Rates?," LEM Papers Series 2002/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Panetta & Paolo Angelini & Giuseppe Grande & Aviram Levy & Roberto Perli & Pinar Yesin & Stefan Gerlach & Srichander Ramaswamy & Michela Scatigna, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 2, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Reply to "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: A Comment"," NBER Working Papers 14919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Documents de Travail 223, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John Driffill & Turalay Kenc & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2008. "On Model Selection and Markov-Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ravi Jagannathan & Andrew Kaplin & Steve Guoqiang Sun, 2001. "An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices," NBER Working Papers 8682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, 11. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gollier, Christian & Koundouri, Phoebe & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates: Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," IDEI Working Papers 525, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  13. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime Shifts and Jumps," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200520, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  16. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Documents de Travail 191, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Nonlinearities in international business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Documents de Travail 234, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  20. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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