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On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts

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  • Driffill, John
  • Kenc, Turalay
  • Sola, Martin
  • Spagnolo, Fabio

Abstract

We examine several continuous-time term-structure models, in which the short rate is subject to discrete shifts. Our empirical analysis suggests that inquiring which parameters of the short-term interest rate equation are allowed to switch is crucial, as failing to do so may result in switching pricing models that produce no improvement (in terms of pricing) with respect to models which do not allow for regime switching, even when there are clear breaks in the data.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4165.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4165

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Keywords: bond yields; regime switching; stochastic discount factor/pricing kernel; term structure of interest rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.

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