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Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching: Bivariate Modeling of US and European Short Rates

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Abstract

This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is specified. The estimated level parameters are very different across countries. The corresponding new bivariate models for the US and UK short rates show that the states of the US and UK short rate volatilities are not independent nor identical. Equivalently, the US and German volatility states are neither independent nor identical

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies in its series Finance Research Group Working Papers with number F-2005-03.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 23 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2005-03

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Postal: The Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
Fax: + 45 86 15 19 43
Web page: http://www.asb.dk/about/departments/bs.aspx
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Keywords: Bivariate short-rate model; International short rates; Level-ARCH model; Regime switching;

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Cited by:
  1. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
  2. Jørgensen, Peter Løchte & De Giovanni, Domenico, 2008. "Time Charters with Purchase Options in Shipping: Valuation and Risk Management," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-05, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  3. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
  4. Nowman, K.B. & Yahia, B.B.H., 2008. "Euro and FIBOR interest rates: A continuous time modelling analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1029-1035, December.
  5. Høg, Esben, 2008. "Volatility and realized quadratic variation of differenced returns : A wavelet method approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-06, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  6. Chua, Chew Lian & Suardi, Sandy & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2013. "Predicting short-term interest rates using Bayesian model averaging: Evidence from weekly and high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-455.
  7. B. Craven & Sardar Islam, 2008. "A model for stock market returns: non-Gaussian fluctuations and financial factors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 355-370, May.

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