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Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version

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Author Info

  • Monfort, A.
  • Pegoraro, F.

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features : (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching regimes; (ii) a specification of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) with time-varying and regime dependent risk-premia; (iii) explicit or quasi explicit formulas for zero-coupon bond and interest rate derivative prices; (iv) the positivity of the yields at each maturity. The first family of models we develop is given by the Switching Autoregressive Normal (SARN) and the Switching Vector Autoregressive Normal (SVARN) Factor-Based Term Structure Models of order p. The second family of models we study is given by the Switching Autoregressive Gamma (SARG) and the Switching Vector Autoregressive Gamma (SVARG) Factor-Based Term Structure Models of order p. Regime shifts are described by a Markov chain with (historical) non-homogeneous transition probabilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 191.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:191

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Related research

Keywords: Affine Term Structure Models ; Stochastic Discount Factor ; Car processes ; Switching Regimes ; VARMA processes ; Lags ; Positivity ; Derivative Pricing.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2012. "Asset pricing with Second-Order Esscher Transforms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1678-1687.
  2. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
  3. Gourieroux, Christian & Sufana, Razvan, 2011. "Discrete time Wishart term structure models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 815-824, June.
  4. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
  5. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  6. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
  7. Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign yield curves," Working papers 352, Banque de France.

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