Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Regime shifts in a dynamic term structure model of U.S. Treasury bond yields

Contents:

Author Info

  • Qiang Dai
  • Kenneth J. Singleton
  • Wei Yang
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper develops and empirically implements an arbitrage-free, dynamic term structure model with "priced" factor and regime-shift risks. The risk factors are assumed to follow a discrete-time Gaussian process, and regime shifts are governed by a discrete-time Markov process with state-dependent transition probabilities. This model gives closed-form solutions for zero-coupon bond prices and an analytic representation of the likelihood function for bond yields. Using monthly data on U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields, we document notable differences in the behaviours of the market prices of factor risk across high and low volatility regimes. Additionally, the state-dependence of the regime-switching probabilities is shown to capture an interesting asymmetry in the cyclical behaviour of interest rates. The shapes of the term structures of bond yield volatilities are also very different across regimes, with the well-known hump in volatility being largely a low-volatility regime phenomenon.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0403/dai_regimegt.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

    Volume (Year): (2004)
    Issue (Month): Mar ()
    Pages:

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:mar:x:11

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
    Phone: (415) 974-2000
    Fax: (415) 974-3333
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Interest rates ; Monetary policy;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort & Vassilis Polimenis, 2002. "Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 2002-49, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
    2. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    3. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
    7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, 04.
    8. Camilla LandÊn, 2000. "Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 371-389.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
    10. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
    11. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, 02.
    12. S.G. Cecchetti & P. Lam & N.C. Mark, 2010. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate: matching the moments," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1396, David K. Levine.
    13. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2000. "The Role of Interest Rates in Federal Reserve Policymaking," NBER Working Papers 8047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    17. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    18. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    20. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
    21. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
    22. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    23. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
    24. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:mar:x:11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.