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Regime Shifts and Bond Returns

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Author Info
Jacob Boudoukh
Matthew Richardson
Tom Smith
Robert Whitelaw
Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of a 2-regime model of the business cycle for term premiums and volatilities in the bond market. The model, which is estimated via maximum likelihood using GDP, consumption and production data, has two key features -- mean growth rates that vary across regimes and time-varying transition probabilities between regimes. The implied dynamics of term premiums and volatilities are complex and interesting. Business cycle turning points are characterized by high volatility and strongly time-varying term premiums. These implications are then investigated using data on bond returns. Nonparametric estimation results are broadly consistent with the model. Using the slope of the term structure as a conditioning variable, we can identify periods with negative term premiums and volatile returns.

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Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 99-010.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:99-010

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Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  9. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0059, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0059, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2002. "Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns," Working Paper 2002-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2004. "Regime shifts in a dynamic term structure model of U.S. Treasury bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hoi Wong & Tsz Wong, 2007. "Reduced-form Models with Regime Switching: An Empirical Analysis for Corporate Bonds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 229-253, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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