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Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions

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Author Info
Clements, Michael P
Krolzig, Hans-Martin

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Abstract

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 196-211
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:1:p:196-211

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  1. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-154. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156. [Downloadable!]
  10. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2001. "A New Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycle Transitions in a Model of Output and Employment," Economics Series Working Papers 059, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4). [Downloadable!]
  14. M. Portugal & I.A. de Morais, 2004. "STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE BRAZILIAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTS: A regime switching approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 346, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. M Cruz, 2003. "The Business Cycle in a Financially Deregulated Context: Theory and Evidence," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0331, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  16. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  17. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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