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The term structures of equity and interest rates

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  • Lettau, Martin
  • Wachter, Jessica A.

Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market, and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. We model how the representative investor perceives risks of these cash flows by specifying a parsimonious stochastic discount factor for the economy. Shocks to dividend growth, the real interest rate, and expected inflation are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show that the model can simultaneously account for the behavior of aggregate stock returns, an upward-sloping yield curve, the failure of the expectations hypothesis, and the poor performance of the capital asset pricing model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 90-113

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:101:y:2011:i:1:p:90-113

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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Keywords: Value premium Yield curve Predictive regressions Affine models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. : Arie E. Gozluklu, 2012. "Inflation, Stock Market and Long-Term Investors: Real Effects of Changing Demographics," Working Papers wpn12-06, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 15688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jerry Tsai, 2013. "Rare Disasters and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Series Working Papers 665, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2009. "The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics," Working Paper Series 1045, European Central Bank.
  6. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  8. Ngoc-Khanh Tran & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous," NBER Working Papers 17199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G & Valkanov, Rossen, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 9377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Du, Du, 2013. "General equilibrium pricing of currency and currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 730-751.
  12. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.

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