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Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Adi Sunderam
Luis M. Viceira

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Abstract

The covariance between US Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953-2005, it was particularly high in the early 1980's and negative in the early 2000's. This paper specifies and estimates a model in which the nominal term structure of interest rates is driven by five state variables: the real interest rate, risk aversion, temporary and permanent components of expected inflation, and the covariance between nominal variables and the real economy. The last of these state variables enables the model to fit the changing covariance of bond and stock returns. Log nominal bond yields and term premia are quadratic in these state variables, with term premia determined mainly by the product of risk aversion and the nominal-real covariance. The concavity of the yield curve -- the level of intermediate-term bond yields, relative to the average of short- and long-term bond yields -- is a good proxy for the level of term premia. The nominal-real covariance has declined since the early 1980's, driving down term premia.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14701.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14701

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G0 - Financial Economics - - General
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefano Nobili & Gerardo Palazzo, 2008. "A beta based framework for (lower) bond risk premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 689, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Paper 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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