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Predictive Regressions: A Present-value Approach

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  • Jules H. van Binsbergen
  • Ralph S.J. Koijen

Abstract

We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with R-squared values ranging from 8.2% to 8.9% for returns and 13.9% to 31.6% for dividend growth rates. Both expected returns and expected dividend growth rates have a persistent component, but expected returns are more persistent than expected dividend growth rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16263.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Publication status: published as van Binsbergen, Jules H. and Ralph S.J. Koijen, Predictive Regressions: A Present-Value Approach, Journal of Finance, August 2010, 65(4), 1439-1471.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16263

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  1. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2008. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 13804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lubos Pastor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2006. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 11941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1998. "A Longer Look at Dividend Yields," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm41, Yale School of Management.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  8. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
  9. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  10. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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