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How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns

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  • Andrew Ang
  • Jun Liu

Abstract

While many studies document that the market risk premium is predictable and that betas are not constant, the dividend discount model ignores time-varying risk premiums and betas. We develop a model to consistently value cashflows with changing risk-free rates, predictable risk premiums and conditional betas in the context of a conditional CAPM. Practical valuation is accomplished with an analytic term structure of discount rates, with different discount rates applied to expected cashflows at different horizons. Using constant discount rates can produce large mis-valuations, which, in portfolio data, are mostly driven at short horizons by market risk premiums and at long horizons by time-variation in risk-free rates and factor loadings.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10042.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10042

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Cited by:
  1. Magdalena Polan & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & Carlos I. Medeiros, 2007. "A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps," IMF Working Papers 07/58, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin (Ginger) Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 11134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Barth, Mary E. & Konchitchki, Yaniv & Landsman, Wayne R., 2008. "Cost of Capital and Earnings Transparency," Research Papers 2015, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  4. Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Solving Models with External Habit," NBER Working Papers 11559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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