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The determinants of stock and bond return comovements

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Author Info
Lieven Baele () (Finance Department, CentER, and Netspar, Tilburg University)
Geert Bekaert () (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University)
Koen Inghelbrecht () (Department Financial Economics, Ghent University, and Finance Department, University College Ghent)

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Abstract

We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovement and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing structural and non-structural vector autoregressive models for economic state variables such as interest rates, (expected) inflation, output growth and dividend payouts. We also view risk aversion, and uncertainty about inflation and output as additional potential factors. Even the best-fitting economic factor model fits the dynamics of stock-bond return correlations poorly. Alternative factors, such as liquidity proxies, help explain the residual correlations not explained by the economic models.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Research series with number 200711-27.

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Length: 67 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200711-27

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Related research
Keywords: factor models; stock-bond return correlation; macroeconomic factors; new-Keynesian models; structural VAR; liquidity; flight-to-safety;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Documents series 200711-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2008. "Economic Importance of Belgian Transport Logistics," Documents series 200801-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joachim Keller, 2008. "Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs," Documents series 200808-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carine Swartenbroekx, 2007. "The gas chain : influence of its specificities on the liberalisation process," Documents series 200711-24, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roberto A. De Santis & Lucio Sarno, 2008. "Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks," Working Paper Series 883, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Research series 200808-20, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chollete, Lorán, 2008. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes: An Application to Subprime Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers 2008/2, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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