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Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets

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Author Info
Geert Bekaert
Guojun Wu

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Abstract

It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical application uses the market portfolio and portfolios with different leverage constructed from Nikkei 225 stocks, extending the empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and the portfolio levels, its source differs across portfolios. We find that it is important to include leverage ratios in the volatility dynamics but that their economic effects are mostly dwarfed by the volatility feedback mechanism. Volatility feedback is enhanced by a phenomenon that we term covariance asymmetry: conditional covariances with the market increase only significantly following negative market news. We do not find significant asymmetries in conditional betas.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6022.

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Date of creation: Apr 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6022

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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  5. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hentschel, Ludger, 1995. "All in the family Nesting symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-104, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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