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The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks

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  • JOHN H. BOYD
  • JIAN HU
  • RAVI JAGANNATHAN

Abstract

We find that on average, an announcement of rising unemployment is good news for stocks during economic expansions and bad news during economic contractions. Unemployment news bundles three types of primitive information relevant for valuing stocks: information about future interest rates, the equity risk premium, and corporate earnings and dividends. The nature of the information bundle, and hence the relative importance of the three effects, changes over time depending on the state of the economy. For stocks as a group, information about interest rates dominates during expansions and information about future corporate dividends dominates during contractions. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 649-672

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:2:p:649-672

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Pourquoi une mauvaise nouvelle macroéconomique peut-être une bonne nouvelle pour le marché action ?
    by contact@captaineconomics.fr (Le Captain') in Captain Economics on 2013-01-11 06:24:39
  2. Pourquoi une bonne nouvelle économique tend à faire baisser la bourse ... et inversement ?
    by trenault@economiematin.fr (Captain Economics) in Economie Matin on 2013-01-16 17:55:21
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