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The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks

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Author Info
JOHN H. BOYD
JIAN HU
RAVI JAGANNATHAN

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Abstract

We find that on average, an announcement of rising unemployment is good news for stocks during economic expansions and bad news during economic contractions. Unemployment news bundles three types of primitive information relevant for valuing stocks: information about future interest rates, the equity risk premium, and corporate earnings and dividends. The nature of the information bundle, and hence the relative importance of the three effects, changes over time depending on the state of the economy. For stocks as a group, information about interest rates dominates during expansions and information about future corporate dividends dominates during contractions. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00742.x
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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 649-672
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:2:p:649-672

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Chulia-Soler, H & Martens, M.P.E. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2007. "The Effects of Federal Funds Target Rate Changes on S&P100 Stock Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations," Research Paper ERS-2007-066-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nico Valckx, 2004. "The decomposition of US and Euro area stock and bond returns and their sensitivity to economic state variables," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-173, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess & Christoph Müller, 2008. "Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision," FRU Working Papers 2008/01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ghent, Andra, 2007. "Why do markets react badly to good news? Evidence from Fed Funds Futures," MPRA Paper 1708, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-337, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Horst Entorf & Christian Steiner, 2006. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 159, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  14. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2008. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  16. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2006. "Dynamic News Effects in High Frequency Euro Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "Monetary Policy, the Bond Market, and Changes in FOMC Communication Policy," Working Papers 31, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary. [Downloadable!]
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