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Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide

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  • Francis X. Diebold

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and NBER)

  • Kamil Yilmaz

    () (Department of Economics, Koc University)

Abstract

Notwithstanding its impressive contributions to empirical financial economics, there remains a significant gap in the volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries. We find a clear link between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock market volatilities, with volatile fundamentals translating into volatile stock markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 08-031.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 06 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:08-031

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Keywords: Financial market; equity market; asset return; risk; variance; asset pricing;

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References

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  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Montiel, Peter & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Macroeconomic stability in developing countries - How much is enough?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3456, The World Bank.
  3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 513-548 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
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  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  7. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
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  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
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  13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2005. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 11312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:pra:mprapa:15733 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Changing Macroeconomic Response to Stock Market Volatility Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3652, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-037, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas, 2009. "Capital misallocation and aggregate factor productivity," Working Papers 2009-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Andrew Stuart Duncan & Alain Kabundi, 2011. "Global Financial Crises and Time-varying Volatility Comovement in World Equity Markets," Working Papers 253, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  6. Yin Hong, 2011. "Positive feedback trading, institutional investors and securities price fluctuation," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 120-132, April.

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