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Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation

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  • Posch, Olaf

Abstract

This paper presents strong empirical evidence that the observed heterogeneity of output volatility across countries and over time is partly endogenous. In particular, based on a closed-form solution we obtain a (long-run) equilibrium relationship between taxes and output volatility in the stochastic neoclassical growth model by showing that asymptotically the variance of output growth rates is affected by the level of taxes, without affecting the mean. We estimate the tax semi-elasticities on output volatility and provide convincing empirical evidence that taxes are important to understand differences in output volatility among OECD countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Public Economics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2011)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 1589-1606

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Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:95:y:2011:i:11:p:1589-1606

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578

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Keywords: Macroeconomic volatility; Tax effects; Continuous-time DSGE models;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  2. Posch, Olaf & Wälde, Klaus, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 57, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  3. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2010. "On the Non-Causal Link between Volatility and Growth," Working Papers 1002, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 08 Mar 2010.
  4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 290-317, 07.
  5. Andrey LAUNOV & Olaf POSCH & Klaus WÄLDE, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
  7. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2010. "Inference For The Jump Part Of Quadratic Variation Of Itô Semimartingales," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 331-368, April.
  8. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
  9. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.

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