Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Booms, recessions and financial turmoil: A fresh look at investment decisions under cyclical uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael Funke

    ()

  • Yu-Fu Chen

    ()

Abstract

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting, the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/fachbereiche-einrichtungen/fb03/iwwt/makro/MarkovSJPE.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21007.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21007

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Von-Melle-Park 5 D-20146 Hamburg
Phone: : +49 (0)40 42838-4674
Fax: +49 (0)40 42838-5546
Web page: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/onTEAM/grafik/1223630633/RePec/ham
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  2. Hans Fehr & Fabian Kindermann, 2010. "Pension Funding and Individual Accounts in Economies with Life-cyclers and Myopes," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 404-443, September.
  3. Gary Burtless, 2009. "Lessons of the Financial Crisis for the Design of National Pension Systems," CESifo Working Paper Series 2735, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Kurt Schmidheiny & Marius Brülhart, 2009. "On the equivalence of location choice models: conditional logit, nested logit and poisson," Working Papers 2009/14, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  5. Caballero, R. & Engel, E.M.R.A., 1991. "Heterogeneity and Output Fluctuations in a Dynamic Menu-Cost Economy," Discussion Papers 1991_16, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  7. Jon Fiva & Gisle Natvik, 2013. "Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 305-331, October.
  8. Oliver Falck & Michael Fritsch & Stephan Heblich, 2009. "Bohemians, human capital and regional economic growth," Working Papers 2009/12, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  9. Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2009. "Comparative Advantage and Skill-Specific Unemployment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2754, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Managing Migration Through Conflicting Policies: An Option-Theory Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 318-342, 07.
  11. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
  12. Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2009. "Market Liberalization in the European Natural Gas Market - The Importance of Capacity Constraints and Efficiency Differences," CESifo Working Paper Series 2697, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Yan Dong & John Whalley, 2009. "A Third Benefit of Joint Non-OPEC Carbon Taxes: Transferring OPEC Monopoly Rent," CESifo Working Paper Series 2741, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.
  15. Driffill John & Raybaudi Marzia & Sola Martin, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty with Stochastically Switching Profit Streams: Entry and Exit over the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, April.
  16. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009. "Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action," CEPR Discussion Papers 7394, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Hassler, John A. A., 1996. "Variations in risk and fluctuations in demand: A theoretical model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1115-1143.
  19. Danziger, Leif, 2010. "Endogenous monopsony and the perverse effect of the minimum wage in small firms," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 224-229, January.
  20. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Fly or Cry: Is Airport Noise Costly?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2732, CESifo Group Munich.
  21. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Price Dispersion in the Euro Area: The Case of a Symmetric Oil Price Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 2718, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Pamela Campa & Alessandra Casarico & Paola Profeta, 2009. "Gender Culture and Gender Gap in Employment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2738, CESifo Group Munich.
  23. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
  24. Mark Doms & Eric J. Bartelsman, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September.
  25. Caterina Liesegang & Marco Runkel, 2009. "Corporate Income Taxation of Multinationals and Fiscal Equalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 2747, CESifo Group Munich.
  26. Sebastian Gechert, 2010. "Supplementary Private Health Insurance in Selected Countries: Lessons for EU Governments?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 444-464, September.
  27. Katri Kosonen & Gaetan Nicodeme, 2009. "The role of fiscal instruments in environmental policy," Taxation Papers 19, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  28. Seppo Kari & Hanna Karikallio & Jukka Pirttilä, 2009. "The impact of dividend taxation on dividends and investment: New evidence based on a natural experiment," Working Papers 9, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  29. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2008. "Product Market Competition, Investment and Employment-Abundant versus Job-Poor Growth: A Real Options Perspective," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20802, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  30. Hans Jarle Kind & Tore Nilssen & Lars Sørgard, 2009. "Business Models for Media Firms: Does Competition Matter for how they Raise Revenue?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2713, CESifo Group Munich.
  31. Eberly, Janice C. & Van Mieghem, Jan A., 1997. "Multi-factor Dynamic Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 345-387, August.
  32. Balazs Egert & Tomasz Kozluk & Douglas Sutherland, 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth: Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2700, CESifo Group Munich.
  33. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina A.V., 2009. "Government Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 4259, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  34. John Haltiwanger, 2000. "Aggregate Growth: What Have We Learned from Microeconomic Evidence?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 267, OECD Publishing.
  35. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  36. Luca Di Corato & Michele Moretto, 2011. "Investing in biogas: timing, technological choice and the value of flexibility from inputs mix," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0134, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  37. M. L. Weitzman & K. Roberts, 1979. "Funding Criteria for Research, Development and Exploration Projects," Working papers 234, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  38. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  39. Bruno S. Frey, 2011. "Punishment – and Beyond," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 5(2), June.
  40. Rüdiger Pethig & Christian Wittlich, 2009. "Interaction of carbon reduction and green energy promotion in a small fossil-fuel importing economy," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 131-09, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  41. Felix Bierbrauer, 2009. "Optimal Income Taxation and Public Goods Provision in a Large Economy with Aggregate Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2701, CESifo Group Munich.
  42. Mirco Tonin & Michael Vlassopoulos, 2009. "Disentangling the Sources of Pro-social Behavior in the Workplace: A Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2757, CESifo Group Munich.
  43. Ernesto Reuben & Arno Riedl, 2009. "Enforcement of Contribution Norms in Public Good Games with Heterogeneous Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2725, CESifo Group Munich.
  44. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 2703, CESifo Group Munich.
  45. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262012638, December.
  46. Samuel Bowles & Sandra Polanía Reyes, 2009. "Economic Incentives and Social Preferences: A preference-Based Lucas Critique of Public Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  47. Samuel Bowles & Sandra Polanía Reyes, 2009. "Economic Incentives and Social Preferences: A Preference-based Lucas Critique of Public Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2734, CESifo Group Munich.
  48. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Spend-and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2542-2548.
  49. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  50. Ramey, Valerie A & SHAPIRO, MATTHEW D, 1998. "Displaced Capital," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt49k7n14z, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  51. Francesco Cinnirella & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Size Matters! Body Height and Labor Market Discrimination: A Cross-European Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2733, CESifo Group Munich.
  52. Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt, 2009. "Buyer Power in International Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 2755, CESifo Group Munich.
  53. J. Amegashie, 2011. "Incomplete property rights and overinvestment," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 81-95, June.
  54. A. Lans Bovenberg & Johan J. Graafland & Ruud A. de Mooij, 1998. "Tax Reform and the Dutch Labor Market: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 6693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Heijdra, Ben J. & Mierau, Jochen O., 2012. "The individual life-cycle, annuity market imperfections and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 876-890.
  56. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
  57. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 2702, CESifo Group Munich.
  58. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Paesani, Paolo & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1229, European Central Bank.
  59. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 190, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  60. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
  61. Daniel G. Arce & Dan Kovenock J. & Brian Roberson, 2009. "Suicide Terrorism and the Weakest Link," CESifo Working Paper Series 2753, CESifo Group Munich.
  62. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld, 2009. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: Is there a Relationship?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2721, CESifo Group Munich.
  63. Xin Guo & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2002. "Irreversible Investment with Regime Shifts," FAME Research Paper Series rp99, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  64. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," Papers 0062, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  65. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  66. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  67. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  68. Christina Felfe, 2009. "The Willingness to Pay for Job Amenities: Evidence from Mothers' Return to Work," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 247, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  69. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  70. Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Bertola, Giuseppe, 2007. "Models for Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228324.
  71. Subir Lall & Roberto Cardarelli & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund.
  72. Beatrice Scheubel & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Don't Raise the Retirement Age! An Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms and East-West Differences in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2752, CESifo Group Munich.
  73. repec:feb:natura:0054 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07040 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Chrysovalantou Milliou & Apostolis Pavlou, 2009. "Upstream Horizontal Mergers and Efficiency Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 2748, CESifo Group Munich.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2010. "What can an open-economy DSGE model tell us about Hong Kong’s housing market?," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21011, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.