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Animal Spirits through Creative Destruction

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Author Info
Patrick Francois
Huw Lloyd-Ellis

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Abstract

We show how a Schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational, herd behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors as if fueled by "animal spirits." Consequently, a multisector economy, in which productivity improvements are made by independent, profit-seeking entrepreneurs, exhibits regular booms, slowdowns, and downturns as part of the long-run growth process. Our cyclical equilibrium has higher average growth, but lower welfare than the corresponding acyclical one. We show how a negative relationship can emerge between volatility and growth across cycling economies, and assess the extent to which our model matches several features of actual business cycles.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 530-550
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:3:p:530-550

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  1. Fay, Jon A & Medoff, James L, 1985. "Labor and Output over the Business Cycle: Some Direct Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 638-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vincenzo Atella & Beniamino Quintieri, 1998. "Productivity Growth and the Effects of Recessions," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 57(3-4), pages 359-386, December.
  3. Wesley M. Cohen & Richard R. Nelson & John P. Walsh, 2000. "Protecting Their Intellectual Assets: Appropriability Conditions and Why U.S. Manufacturing Firms Patent (or Not)," NBER Working Papers 7552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992. "Forecasting turning points : Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 431-435, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Alonso-Borrego, Cesar, 2001. "Occupational structure, technological innovation, and reorganization of production," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 43-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Francois, Patrick & Shi, Shouyong, 1999. "Innovation, Growth, and Welfare-Improving Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 226-257, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Geroski, P A & Walters, C F, 1995. "Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 916-28, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Research Paper 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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  1. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2005. "Schumpeterian Restructuring," Working Papers 1039, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jakub, GROWIEC & Ingmar, SCHUMACHER, 2007. "Technological opportunity, long-run growth and convergence," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007034, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  4. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2004. "Crises and Growth: A Re-Evaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2004. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 832, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation (September 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 264, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2005. "I - Q Cycles," Working Papers 1040, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Taiji Harashima, 2005. "The Pro-cyclical R&D Puzzle: Technology Shocks and Pro-cyclical R&D Expenditure," Macroeconomics 0507012, EconWPA, revised 12 Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What it Wants," NBER Working Papers 10999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Klaus, WAELDE, 2003. "Endogenous growth cycles," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2004012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 15 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Klaus Wälde, 2005. "Endogenous Growth Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 867-894, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2004. "Investment Cycles," Macroeconomics 0405005, EconWPA, revised 05 May 2004. [Downloadable!]
  13. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2003. "Co-movement, capital and contracts: 'normal' cycles through creative destruction," Discussion Paper 62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "On the Timing of Innovation in Stochastic Schumpeterian Growth Models," NBER Working Papers 10741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Klaus Waelde, 2003. "Endogenous Business Cycles and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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