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Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction

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Author Info
Patrick Francois
Huw Lloyd-Ellis

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Abstract

We show how a Schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational, herd behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors as if fueled by "animal spirits." Consequently, a multisector economy, in which productivity improvements are made by independent, profit-seeking entrepreneurs, exhibits regular booms, slowdowns, and downturns as part of the long-run growth process. Our cyclical equilibrium has higher average growth, but lower welfare than the corresponding acyclical one. We show how a negative relationship can emerge between volatility and growth across cycling economies, and assess the extent to which our model matches several features of actual business cycles.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/000282803322156972
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=AER&volume=93&issue=3&article=3&issue_date=June2003
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 530-550
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:3:p:530-550

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  1. Fay, Jon A & Medoff, James L, 1985. "Labor and Output over the Business Cycle: Some Direct Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 638-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Balke, Nathan S & Wynne, Mark A, 1995. "Recessions and Recoveries in Real Business Cycle Models," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 640-63, October.
  3. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. " Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-Run Persistence and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 147-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
  6. Wesley M. Cohen & Richard R. Nelson & John P. Walsh, 2000. "Protecting Their Intellectual Assets: Appropriability Conditions and Why U.S. Manufacturing Firms Patent (or Not)," NBER Working Papers 7552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992. "Forecasting turning points : Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 431-435, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Alonso-Borrego, Cesar, 2001. "Occupational structure, technological innovation, and reorganization of production," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 43-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Francois, Patrick & Shi, Shouyong, 1999. "Innovation, Growth, and Welfare-Improving Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 226-257, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Geroski, P A & Walters, C F, 1995. "Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 916-28, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Research Paper 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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