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The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US

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  • Altissimo, Filippo
  • Violante, Giovanni L

Abstract

This paper studies the joint dynamics of US output and unemployment rates in a nonlinear VAR model. The nonlinearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is severely rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross-correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence existing in the literature. The regime-dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long-run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation for the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2475.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2475

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Related research

Keywords: Ergodicity; Impulse Response Function; Long-Run Effect of Recessions; Nonlinearity; Persistence; Threshold VAR;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2001-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 266, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang & T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2008. "A Common-Use Proxy for Economic Performance: Application to Asymmetric Causality between the Stock Returns and Growth," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August.
  5. Cone, Thomas E., 2008. "Optimal information acquisition and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1370-1389, December.
  6. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
  7. Zagler, Martin, 2000. "Does economic growth exhibit a different impact on job creation and job destruction?," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-40, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  8. Ulrich Woitek, 2004. "Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1206, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
  10. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Gunnar Bardsen & Stan Hurn & Zoe McHugh, 2011. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," NCER Working Paper Series 71, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  12. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
  13. Zagler, Martin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries: Analysis of Okun´s Law," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
  14. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.

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