The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S
AbstractThis paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non-linear VAR model. The non-linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross-correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime-dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long-run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
Other versions of this item:
- Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Aoki, Masanao & Fiorito, Riccardo, 1993.
"Analysis of US real GNP and unemployment interactions : State space approach,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 385-399, May.
- Masano Aoki & Riccardo Fiorito, 1992. "Analysis of U.S. Real GNP and Unemployment Interactions: State Space Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 647, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 2000.
"Testing for stationarity-ergodicity and for comovements between nonlinear discrete time Markov processes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 39-73, May.
- Corradi, V. & Swanson, N. & White, H., 1996. "Testing for Stationarity-Ergodicity and for Comovements Between Nonlinear Discrete Time Markov Processes," Papers 4-96-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992.
9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1991.
"The Cleansing Effect of Recessions,"
NBER Working Papers
3922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1991.
"Growth and Unemployment,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Postel-Vinay, F., 1998. "The Perverse Dynamics of Growth-Induced Unemployment," Papiers d'Economie MathÃÂ©matique et Applications 98.12, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Mark W. French & Daniel E. Sichel, 1991.
"Cyclical patterns in the variance of economic activity,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
161, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-19, January.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992.
"Qualitative threshold ARCH models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199.
- Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987.
"Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-17, May.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Campbell, John, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Scholarly Articles 3207697, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Simon M. Potter, 1993.
"A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
693, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1993.
"Uncovering Some Causal Relationships between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey,"
NBER Working Papers
4603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, 07.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Blanchard and Quah AER 1989," Statistical Software Components RTZ00017, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BQDODRAWS: RATS procedure to implement Monte Carlo draws from a VAR with Blanchard-Quah factorization," Statistical Software Components RTS00030, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997.
"A floor and ceiling model of US output,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
- repec:fth:coluec:540 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
- Rothman, Philip, 1988.
"Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle,"
88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Sichel, D.E., 1988.
"Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look,"
85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Pesaran, M H & Deaton, Angus S, 1978. "Testing Non-Nested Nonlinear Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 677-94, May.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986. "Consistency in Nonlinear Econometric Models: A Generic Uniform Law of Large Numbers," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 790, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Dinh Tuan, Pham, 1986. "The mixing property of bilinear and generalised random coefficient autoregressive models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 291-300, December.
- Altissimo, F. & Violante, G.L., 1998. "Nonlinear VAR: Some Theory and an Application to the US GNP and Unemployment," Papers 338, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach & Stan Radchenko, 2004.
"The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics,"
Departmental Working Papers
200405, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 266, Society for Computational Economics.
- Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
- Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
- Pitarakis, J., 2004.
"Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
0409, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
- Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effecs," Econometrics 0409013, EconWPA.
- Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010.
"Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia,"
CREATES Research Papers
2010-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," Working Paper Series 10810, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- Gunnar Bardsen & Stan Hurn & Zoe McHugh, 2011. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," NCER Working Paper Series 71, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Zagler, Martin, 2000.
"Does economic growth exhibit a different impact on job creation and job destruction?,"
ISER Working Paper Series
2000-40, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Martin Zagler, 2006. "Does Economic Growth Exhibit A Different Impact On Job Creation And Job Destruction?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(5), pages 672-683, November.
- Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2001.
"Animal Spirits meets Creative Destruction,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
130, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Ulrich Woitek, 2004. "Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1206, CESifo Group Munich.
- Michael ARTIS & Ana Beatriz C. GALVÃO & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2003.
"The transmission mechanism in a changing world,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2003/18, European University Institute.
- Cone, Thomas E., 2008. "Optimal information acquisition and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1370-1389, December.
- Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang & T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2008. "A Common-Use Proxy for Economic Performance: Application to Asymmetric Causality between the Stock Returns and Growth," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August.
- Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
- Zagler, Martin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries: Analysis of Okun´s Law," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.