Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries
AbstractThe cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real wages and business fluctuations on the phase of the cycle, it is demonstrated that the inconclusive evidence is not only caused by measurement problems, estimation method and composition bias as discussed in the literature. In addition, one should also consider whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. In general, the evidence for countercyclical wages is stronger in Germany than for the US, but taken together there is no clear systematic pattern.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1206.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
threshold vector autoregressive model; real wages; business cycle;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-07-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2004-07-04 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2004-07-04 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Jim Malley & Anton Muscatelli & Ulrich Woitek, 1999.
"Real Business Cycles or Sticky Prices? The Impact of Technology Shocks on US Manufacturing,"
1999_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Jim Malley & V. Anton Muscatelli & Ulrich Woitek, 2000. "Real Business Cycles of Sticky Prices? The Impact of Technology Shocks on US Manufacturing," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1297, Econometric Society.
- Simon M. Potter, 1993.
"A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
693, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
- Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Chirinko, Robert S, 1980. "The Real Wage Rate over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 459-61, August.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1978.
"Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations," Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999.
"Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
- Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001.
"The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
- Jim Malley & Robert A Hart & Ulrich Woitek, 2003. "Manufacturing Earnings and Cycles: New Evidence," Working Papers 2002_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1992.
"Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias,"
NBER Working Papers
4202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1978. "A Time-Series Analysis of the Real Wages-Employment Relationship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 281-91, April.
- Geary, Patrick T & Kennan, John, 1982. "The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 854-71, August.
- Sumner, Scott & Silver, Stephen, 1989. "Real Wages, Employment, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 706-20, June.
- Pesaran, H.M. & Potter, S.M., 1995.
"A Floor and Ceiling Model of U.S. Output,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997.
"The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Ronald G. Bodkin, 1969. "Real Wages and Cyclical Variations in Employment: A Re-Examination of the Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 353-374, August.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
- Otani, Ichiro, 1978. "Real Wages and Business Cycles Revisited," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 301-04, May.
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
- Cyrus Farsian, 2011. "The Fallacy of Composition Bias in the RealWage Cyclicality Puzzle," Studies in Economics 1116, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.