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Threshold Cointegration

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Author Info
Balke, Nathan S
Fomby, Thomas B

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Abstract

In this paper, the authors consider a model in which there is discontinuous adjustment to a long-run equilibrium. Here, the equilibrium error follows a threshold autoregression that is mean-reverting outside a given range and has a unit root inside the range. The authors suggest a two-step approach for examining threshold cointegration. They find that standard time series methods developed for testing for cointegration in the linear case work reasonably well when threshold cointegration is present. The authors then consider a 'sup-Wald' test of linearity that takes the double-threshold model as the alternative hypothesis. Copyright 1997 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 38 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 627-45
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:38:y:1997:i:3:p:627-45

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  5. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Granger, Clive W J & Hallman, Jeffrey J, 1991. "Long Memory Series with Attractors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(1), pages 11-26, February.
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  8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sheshinski, Eytan & Weiss, Yoram, 1983. "Optimum Pricing Policy under Stochastic Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(3), pages 513-29, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "A simplified treatment of the theory of optimal regulation of Brownian motion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 657-673, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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