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Nonlinear VAR: Some Theory and an Application to the US GNP and Unemployment

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Author Info
Altissimo, F.
Violante, G.L.

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Abstract

A generalization of the endogenous threshold model is developed by extending this class to multivariate framework and to cases where the feedback acts at multiple lags. The feedback is specified, following Beaudry and Koop, by a variable which measures the depth of recessions. We give conditions for the ergodicity of the model and prove strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator, although the objective function is discontinuous in the threshold parameter. The model is applied to a bivariate VAR of output growth and changes in the unemployment rate for the US economy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number 338.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:338

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Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it/
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Related research
Keywords: MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS ; STOCHASTIC MODELS ; UNITED STATES ; UNEMPLOYMENT ; PRODUCTION ; ECONOMETRIC MODELS ; ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - General
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution

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  1. Sella Lisa, 2008. "Old and new spectral techniques for economic time series," Department of Economics Working Papers 200809, University of Turin. [Downloadable!]
  2. Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Dario Focarelli & Fabio Panetta & Carmelo Salleo, 1999. "Why Do Banks Merge?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 361, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Leonardo Gambacorta, 1999. "What is the Optimal Institutional Arrangement for a Monetary Union?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 356, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese & Ignazio Visco, 1999. "Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policymaking? A case study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 357, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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