IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/banita/338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear VAR: Some Theory and an Application to the US GNP and Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Altissimo, F.
  • Violante, G.L.

Abstract

A generalization of the endogenous threshold model is developed by extending this class to multivariate framework and to cases where the feedback acts at multiple lags. The feedback is specified, following Beaudry and Koop, by a variable which measures the depth of recessions. We give conditions for the ergodicity of the model and prove strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator, although the objective function is discontinuous in the threshold parameter. The model is applied to a bivariate VAR of output growth and changes in the unemployment rate for the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Altissimo, F. & Violante, G.L., 1998. "Nonlinear VAR: Some Theory and an Application to the US GNP and Unemployment," Papers 338, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, March.
    3. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    4. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    5. Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
    6. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 861-883, May.
    7. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199.
    8. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    9. Falk, Barry, 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1096-1109, October.
    10. Brunner, Allan D, 1992. "Conditional Asymmetries in Real GNP: A Seminonparametric Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 65-72, January.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    12. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    13. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    14. Braun, Phillip A. & Mittnik, Stefan, 1993. "Misspecifications in vector autoregressions and their effects on impulse responses and variance decompositions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, October.
    15. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    16. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint‐Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, July.
    18. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119, January.
    19. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    20. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    21. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    22. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
    23. Piero Cipollone & Domenico J. Marchetti, 1998. "Strozzature settoriali, limiti alla crescita e pressioni inflazionistiche," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 27-54.
    24. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dapontas Dimitrios & Evangelopoulos Panagiotis, 2013. "Has the NAFTA Foundation Affected Business Cycles Length? An Introduction," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 145-153, July.
    2. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
    3. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    4. Sella Lisa, 2008. "Old and New Spectral Techniques for Economic Time Series," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200809, University of Turin.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
    2. Allan D. Brunner, 1997. "On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
    3. Shively, Philip A., 2004. "The size and dynamic effect of aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply disturbances in expansionary and contractionary regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 83-99, March.
    4. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    5. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    6. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.
    7. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    8. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Philip M. Bodman, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
    10. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    12. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    13. Karamé, Frédéric, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 85-102.
    14. Martínez, Oscar & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2003. "Threshold integrated moving average models: does size matter? maybe so," DE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía. DE 16008, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    15. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.
    16. Camacho Maximo & Perez Quiros Gabriel, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-39, December.
    17. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    18. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
    19. H. Peter Boswijk & Philip Hans Franses & Dick van Dijk, 2000. "Asymmetric and Common Absorption of Shocks in Nonlinear Autoregressive Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0765, Econometric Society.
    20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS ; STOCHASTIC MODELS ; UNITED STATES ; UNEMPLOYMENT ; PRODUCTION ; ECONOMETRIC MODELS ; ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:banita:338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.