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Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment

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Author Info
Bodman, Philip M

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Abstract

The periodic structure of business cycles suggests that significant asymmetries are present over different phases of the cycle. This paper uses Markov regime-switching models with fixed and duration dependent transition probabilities to directly model expansions, contractions and durations in Australian GDP growth and unemployment growth. Evidence is found of significant asymmetry in growth rates across expansions and contractions for both series. GDP contractions exhibit duration dependence implying that as output recessions age the likelihood of switching into an expansion phase increases. Unemployment growth does not exhibit duration dependence in either phase. Evidence is also presented that nonlinearities in unemployment growth are well explained by the asymmetries in the GDP growth cycle. The analysis suggests that recessions are periods of rapid and intense job destruction, that Australian unemployment tends to ratchet up in recessionary periods and, in contrast to U.S. and U.K. studies, that shocks to Australian unemployment growth are more persistent in recessions than expansions. Copyright 1998 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
Issue (Month): 227 (December)
Pages: 399-411
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:227:p:399-411

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  1. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 01/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2002. "A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate," Working Paper Series 1002, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
  3. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Econométrie des modèles à changements de régimes: un essai de synthèse," Post-Print halshs-00174034_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Adrian Pagan, 2002. "Learning About Models And Their Fit To Data ," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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