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Forecasting turning points : Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

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  • Emery, Kenneth M.
  • Koenig, Evan F.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-45DMVPP-VK/2/2735b011bad7d25e285918c3e446942a
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 39 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 431-435

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:39:y:1992:i:4:p:431-435

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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References

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  1. Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Research Paper 9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1991. "Misleading indicators? Using the composite leading indicators to predict cyclical turning points," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-14.
  4. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
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Cited by:
  1. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
  2. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
  3. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2001-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "Capacity utilization and the evolution of manufacturing output: a closer look at the "bounce-back effect."," Working Papers 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
  6. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September.
  7. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
  8. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
  10. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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