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Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession? Moreover, does it matter if the recession is associated with a housing bust? We look at the American historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions. The answers depend on the definition of a financial crisis and on how much of the recovery is considered. But in general recessions associated with financial crises are generally followed by rapid recoveries. We find three exceptions to this pattern: the recovery from the Great Contraction in the 1930s; the recovery after the recession of the early 1990s and the present recovery. The present recovery is strikingly more tepid than the 1990s. One factor we consider that may explain some of the slowness of this recovery is the moribund nature of residential investment, a variable that is usually a key predictor of recessions and recoveries.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 1214.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1214

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics;

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Cited by:
  1. Michael D Bordo, 2012. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: What have we Learned?," Working Papers id:4924, eSocialSciences.
  2. David O. Cushman, 2012. "Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA's Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 309-349, September.
  3. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," BCAM Working Papers 1402, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  4. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kenneth, Rogoff, 2012. "This Time is Different, Again? The United States Five Years after the Onset of Subprime," MPRA Paper 51257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications," IMF Working Papers 13/28, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Albinowski, Maciej & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?," MPRA Paper 48242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Morten Bech & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2012. "Monetary policy in a downturn: Are financial crises special?," BIS Working Papers 388, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
  11. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, growth and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-40.
  12. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
  13. Kliesen, Kevin L. & Tatom, John A., 2013. "U.S. manufacturing and the importance of international trade: it’s not what you think," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 27-50.
  14. Ben Tengelsen, 2012. "Winners and Losers in the Global Financial Crisis," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2012-03, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.

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