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How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?

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  • Claessens, Stijn
  • Kose, Ayhan
  • Terrones, Marco E

Abstract

This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8396.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8396

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Keywords: asset busts; booms; credit crunches; financial crises; recessions; recoveries;

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References

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  1. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
  2. Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
  4. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
  5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 303-343 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
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  16. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Balke, Nathan S & Wynne, Mark A, 1995. "Recessions and Recoveries in Real Business Cycle Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 640-63, October.
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  23. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2012. "In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0361, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303 - 344.
  4. pengfei Wang & Tao Zha & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2012 Meeting Papers 85, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Scott Davis, 2010. "The adverse feedback loop and the effects of risk in both the real and financial sectors," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 66, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011. "Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?," Discussion Papers 11-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.

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