Testing for duration dependence in economic cycles
AbstractIn this paper, we discuss discrete-time tests for duration dependence. Two of our test statistics are new to the econometrics literature, and we make an important distinction between the discrete and continuous time frameworks. We then test for duration dependence in business and stock market cycles, and compare our results for business cycles with those of Diebold and Rudebusch (1990, 1991) . Our null hypothesis is that once an expansion or contraction has exceeded some minimum duration, the probability of a turning point is independent of its age--a proposition that dates back to Fisher (1925) and McCulloch (1975) . Copyright Royal Economic Socciety 2004
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.
Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
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- Vítor Castro, 2010.
"The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?,"
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- Castro, Vítor, 2008. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions : More than duration dependence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 860, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Marcelle Chauvet, 2013. "Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy," Working Papers 2013-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
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