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Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective

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  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

Abstract

This paper investigates the international spillovers of housing demand shocks on real economic activity. The global economy is modelled using a Global VAR, with a novel house price data set for both advanced and emerging economies. The impulse responses to an identified US housing demand shock confirm the existence of strong international spillovers to advanced economies. In contrast, the response of some major emerging economies is not significantly different from zero. The paper also shows that synchronized housing demand shocks in advanced economies reinforce each other and have a deep and long-lasting impact on economic activity.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4810.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4810

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Cited by:
  1. Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Cesa-Bianchi, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A. & Xu, T., 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1150, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119 - 166.
  4. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2013. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," FIW Working Paper series, FIW 116, FIW.
  5. Francis E Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2012. "Developing Housing Finance Systems," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.

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