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Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate?: Evidence from OECD Countries Using an Agnostic Identification Procedure

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  • Christophe André
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Patrick T. Kanda

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for the seven major OECD countries using Uhlig's (2005) agnostic identification procedure. This method allows a housing demand shock to be identified in a six-variable VAR model by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer prices, residential investment, real house prices and mortgage loans, while private consumption and nominal interest rate responses are left unrestricted. The results suggest that consumption responds positively and significantly to a house price shock in Canada, France, Japan and the UK. A significant positive delayed response of nominal interest rates follows a house price shock in Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, suggesting that while central banks do not seem to respond instantly and systematically to a housing demand shock, their repercussions on the economy tend to translate into higher policy rates after a few quarters. Les prix des logements affectent-ils la consommation et le taux d'intérêt ? : Une étude empirique sur des pays de l'OCDE utilisant une procédure d'identification agnostique Cet article étudie l'existence d’une inflence significative du secteur du logement sur l'économie dans son ensemble pour les sept grands pays de l’OCDE, en utilisant la procédure d'identification agnostique d’Uhlig (2005). Cette méthode permet l'identification d'un choc de demande de logement dans un modèle VAR à six variables en imposant des restrictions sur les signes des fonctions de réaction aux innovations des prix à la consommation, de l'investissement résidentiel, des prix réels des logements et des prêts hypothécaires, tandis que les réponses de la consommation privée et des taux d'intérêt nominaux sont laissées libres. Les résultats suggèrent que la consommation réagit positivement et significativement à un choc de prix des logements au Canada, en France, au Japon et au Royaume-Uni. D'autre part, une réponse positive, significative et retardée des taux d'intérêt nominaux suit un choc de prix des logements en Allemagne, au Japon, au Royaume-Uni et aux Etats-Unis, suggérant que si les banques centrales ne semblent pas réagir instantanément et systématiquement à un choc de demande de logement, les répercussions de ce dernier sur l'économie ont tendance à se traduire par des taux directeurs plus élevés après quelques trimestres.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 947.

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Date of creation: 09 Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:947-en

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Keywords: consumption; monetary policy; agnostic identification; house prices; politique monétaire; identification agnostique; consommation; prix des logements;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  3. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2013. "Re-examining the decline in the US saving rate: The impact of mortgage equity withdrawal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 215-225.
  5. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And House Prices Asymmetric In South Africa? Evidence From A Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201222, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
  7. Christophe Andre & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Comovement in Euro Area Housing Prices: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 201359, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  8. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working Papers 1211, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.

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