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International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective

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  • Haroon Mumtaz

    ()
    (Center for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England)

  • Saverio Simonelli

    ()
    (Università di Napoli Federico II, EUI and CSEF)

  • Paolo Surico

    ()
    (External MPC unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

Using a dynamic factor model, we uncover four main empirical regularities on international comovements in a long-run panel of real and nominal variables. First, the contribution of world comovements to domestic output growth has decreased over the post-WWII period. The contribution of regional comovements, however, has increased significantly. Second, the share of inflation variation due to a global factor has become larger since 1985. Third, over most of the post-WWII period, international comovements within regions have accounted for the bulk of fluctuations in business cycle and inflation. Fourth, prices have become significantly less countercyclical during the post-1984 sample, with the largest contribution due to external developments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy in its series CSEF Working Papers with number 233.

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Date of creation: 10 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:233

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Keywords: output growth; in.ation; geographic identi.cation; dynamic factor model;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Papers 0007, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  2. Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2011. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2011/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  3. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," Working Papers 0015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  5. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2013. "Domestic Versus International Determinants Of European Business Cycles: A GVAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2013-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," Research Department Publications 4810, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "No coupling, no decoupling, only mutual inter-dependence: Business cycles in emerging vs. mature economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A New Look at Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of Industry, Provincial, National and External Factors," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  9. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Understanding global liquidity," Discussion Papers 03/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  11. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
  12. Hugo Gerard, 2012. "Co-movement in Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Papers 0012, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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