Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stephane Dees
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • L. Vanessa Smith
  • Ron P. Smith

Abstract

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate equation. The IS equation includes a real exchange rate variable and a country-specific foreign output variable to capture direct inter-country linkages. In accord with the theory all variables are measured as deviations from their steady states, which are estimated as long-horizon forecasts from a reduced-form cointegrating global vector autoregression. The resulting rational expectations model is then estimated for 33 countries on data for 1980Q1-2006Q4, by inequality constrained IV, using lagged and contemporaneous foreign variables as instruments, subject to the restrictions implied by the NK theory. The multi-country DSGE NK model is then solved to provide estimates of identified supply, demand and monetary policy shocks. Following the literature, we assume that the within country supply, demand and monetary policy shocks are orthogonal, though shocks of the same type (e.g. supply shocks in different countries) can be correlated. We discuss estimation of impulse response functions and variance decompositions in such large systems, and present estimates allowing for both direct channels of international transmission through regression coefficients and indirect channels through error spillover effects. Bootstrapped error bands are also provided for the cross country responses of a shock to the US monetary policy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-06/cesifo1_wp3081.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3081.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3081

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: global VAR (GVAR); New Keynesian DSGE models; supply shocks; demand shocks; monetary policy shocks;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
  2. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  5. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 603, European Central Bank.
  9. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006.
  10. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  12. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  13. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 2263, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Pesaran, M.H. & Chudik, A., 2010. "Econometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1024, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
  18. Dees, Stephane & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, L. Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3298, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 536, Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2009. "Monetary policy shocks, Choleski identification, and DNK models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1014-1021, October.
  21. Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  22. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November.
  24. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
  25. repec:bla:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:707-734 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Matthieu Bussiere & Alexander Chudik & Arnaud Mehl, 2011. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual Euro area countries since the Euro's creation?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Cesa-Bianchi, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A. & Xu, T., 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1150, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," CeRP Working Papers 103, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  4. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Livio Stracca, 2010. "Is the new keynesian IS curve structural?," Working Paper Series 1236, European Central Bank.
  6. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3081

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.