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Global Real Estate Markets: Cycles And Fundamentals

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Author Info
William N. Goetzmann () (Yale University, School of Management)
Bradford Case () (Monetary and Financial Studies Section)
K. Geert Rouwenhorst () (School of Management)

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Abstract

The correlations among international real estate markets are surprisingly high, given the degree to which they are segmented. While industrial, office and retail properties exist all around the world, they are not economic substitutes because of locational specificity. In addition, the broad securitization of real estate property companies has, until recently, lagged that of other types of companies. Never-the-less, international property returns move together in dramatic fashion. In this paper, we use eleven years of global property returns to explore the factors influencing this co-movement. We attribute a substantial amount of the correlation across world property markets to the effects of changes in GNP, suggesting that real estate is a bet on fundamental economic variables which are correlated across countries. A decomposition shows that a local production factor is more important in some countries than in others.

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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm116.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm116

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
R1 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics
R33 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Production Analysis and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  1. Pat Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg & Richard Gerlach, 2002. "Structural Breaks and Diversification: The ImpactThe Impact of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis on the Integration of Asia-Pacific Real Estate Markets," Working Paper Series 121, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Neal Maroney & Atsuyuki Naka, 2006. "Diversification Benefits of Japanese Real Estate Over the Last Four Decades," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 259-274, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jian Yang & James W. Kolari & Guozhong Zhu, 2005. "European public real estate market integration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(13), pages 895-905, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Elias Oikarinen, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert T. Kleiman & James E. Payne & Anandi P. Sahu, 2002. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 279-298. [Downloadable!]
  6. Maroney, Neal C. & Naka, Atsuyuki, 2003. "Diversification benefit of Japanese real estate over the last four decades," Working Papers 2003-01, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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