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On the Cyclicality of Real Wages and Wage Differentials

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  • Christopher Otrok

    ()
    (University of Missouri)

  • Panayiotis M. Pourpourides

    ()
    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the cyclicality of real wages. The approach we take is to search for the largest possible common cyclical component in a statistical sense. This contrasts with the existing literature which uses observable variables to proxy for a common cycle. We do so by using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model and longitudinal microdata. We find that the comovement of real wages can be related to a common factor that exhibits a significant but far from perfect correlation with the national unemployment rate. Our findings indicate that (i) the common factor explains, on average, no more than 9% of wage variation, (ii) the common factor accounts for 20% or less of the wage variability for 88% of the workers in the sample and (iii) roughly half of the wages move procyclically while half move countercyclically. These facts are inconsistent with claims of a strong systematic relationship between real wages and the business cycle. We show that these results are inconsistent with models of Walrasian labor markets typically used in DSGE models. We also confirm findings of previous studies in which skilled and unskilled wages exhibit roughly the same degree of cyclical variation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Cyprus in its series Working Papers with number 2011-4.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2011-4

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Web page: http://www.centralbank.gov.cy/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=1
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Keywords: Wages; wage differentials; business cycles; Bayesian analysis.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," Research Department Publications 4810, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok & Marco TerronesÂ, . "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," Working Paper 164451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  3. Jungbacker, B. & Koopman, S.J. & van der Wel, M., 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation for dynamic factor models with missing data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1358-1368, August.
  4. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 13/38, International Monetary Fund.

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