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Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker and Firm Heterogeneity

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  • Carneiro, Anabela

    () (University of Porto)

  • Guimaraes, Paulo

    () (University of Porto)

  • Portugal, Pedro

    () (Banco de Portugal)

Abstract

Using a longitudinal matched employer-employee data set for Portugal over the 1986-2005 period, this study analyzes the heterogeneity in wages responses to aggregate labor market conditions for newly hired workers and existing workers. Accounting for both worker and firm heterogeneity, the data support the hypothesis that entry wages are much more procyclical than current wages. A one-point increase in the unemployment rate decreases wages of newly hired male workers by around 2.8% and by just 1.4% for workers in continuing jobs. Since we estimate the fixed effects, we were able to show that unobserved heterogeneity plays a non-trivial role in the cyclicality of wages. In particular, worker fixed effects of new hires and separating workers behave countercyclically, whereas firm fixed effects exhibit a procyclical pattern. Finally, the results reveal, for all workers, a wage-productivity elasticity of 1.2, slightly above the one-for-one response predicted by the Mortensen-Pissarides model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4174.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as 'Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm and Job-Title Heterogeneity' in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4(2)
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4174

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Related research

Keywords: labor productivity; compositional effects; firm-specific effects; hires; wage cyclicality;

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References

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  1. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2012. "Wage Rigidity and Job Creation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-88, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martins, Pedro S. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2011. "Why Ex(Im)porters Pay More: Evidence from Matched Firm-Worker Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 6013, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Anger, Silke, 2011. "The cyclicality of effective wages within employer–employee matches in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 786-797.
  3. G. de Walque & M. Druant & Ph. Du Caju & C. Fuss, 2010. "Lessons of the Wage Dynamics Network," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue I, pages 55-75, June.
  4. Jordi Galé, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Working Papers 435, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Pedro Martins & Luca David Opromolla, 2010. "Exports, Imports and Wages:Evidence from Matched Firm-Worker-Product Panels," Working Papers w201002, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Mário Centeno & Álvaro A. Novo, 2012. "Segmentation," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. Juha Kilponen & Juuso Vanhala, 2009. "Productivity and Job Flows - Heterogeneity of New Hires and Continuing Jobs in the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 1080, European Central Bank.
  9. Martins, Pedro S. & Solon, Gary & Thomas, Jonathan P., 2010. "Measuring What Employers Really Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 4757, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Maritza López-Novella & Salimata Sissoko, 2009. "Working Paper 12-09 - Salaires et négociation collective en Belgique : une analyse microéconomique en panel," Working Papers 0912, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
  11. Stüber, Heiko, 2012. "Are real entry wages rigid over the business cycle? : Empirical evidence for Germany from 1977 to 2009," IAB Discussion Paper 201206, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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