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The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union

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  • Oriol Aspachs-Bracons

    (Research Department, Caixa d’Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona)

  • Pau Rabanal

    (Research Department, International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we calibrate a New Keynesian model of a currency area with durable goods to explain it.We find that labor market rigidities provide stronger amplification effects to all types of shocks than financial frictions do. Finally, we show that when the central bank reacts to house prices, the non-durable sector suffers an important contraction. As a result, the boom-and-bust cycle would not have been avoided if Spain had remained outside the EMU during the 1996–2007 period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 7 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 225-274

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:1:a:11

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  1. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0972, European Central Bank.
  2. Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2009. "The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain," IMF Working Papers 09/203, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications 77379, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
  3. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model with Animal Spirits and House Price Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Christophe Andre & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2011. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate? Evidence from OECD Countries using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Working Papers 201118, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
  6. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2013. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 13/209, International Monetary Fund.
  8. John C. Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Housing Booms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 345-355, March.
  9. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 88, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  10. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Financial market heterogeneity: Implications for the EMU," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 90, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.

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