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Budgetary-Neutral Fiscal Policy Rules and External Adjustment

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  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Lukas Vogel
  • Bernhard Herz

Abstract

Large external imbalances and fragile fiscal positions have emerged as major policy challenges for the euro area in the financial crisis. The paper analyses whether shifting government purchases between tradable and non-tradable goods could help reduce external fluctuations without large swings in the overall fiscal stance. The policy rules considered are budgetary-neutral in the sense that the overall level of government expenditure is kept constant. We compare the policy rules to fiscal devaluation as a strategy to reduce external imbalances and find that state-dependent changes in the composition of government purchases between tradables and non-tradables can stabilise excessive fluctuations in the event of economy-wide supply and demand shocks. Contrary to fiscal devaluation, the expenditure-shifting rule faces a trade-off between stabilising domestic activity and enhancing household welfare, on the one hand, and reducing excessive fluctuations in external positions, on the other hand. The excess volatility of domestic variables associated less volatility in the external position implies welfare losses for standard specifications of household utility. The adverse welfare effect is absent in the case of fiscal devaluation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Hohberger & Lukas Vogel & Bernhard Herz, 2014. "Budgetary-Neutral Fiscal Policy Rules and External Adjustment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 909-936, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:909-936
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-014-9314-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Dio & Francesco Felici, 2015. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 731-785, September.
    2. Can Xu & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 759-787, September.
    3. Stefan Hohberger & Lukas Vogel & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "The sectoral reallocation of government purchases as budgetary-neutral stabilisation tool: a model-based analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 59-74, March.
    4. Lena Kraus & Jürgen Beier & Bernhard Herz, 2019. "Sudden stops in a currency union – some lessons from the euro area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 115-138, February.
    5. Hohberger, Stefan & Kraus, Lena, 2016. "Is fiscal devaluation welfare enhancing?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 512-522.
    6. Hohberger, Stefan & Kraus, Lena, 2015. "Is fiscal devaluation welfare enhancing? A model-based analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113193, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Government spending composition; External imbalances; Fiscal devaluation; E62; F32; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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