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China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America

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  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Alessandro Rebucci

    ()

  • TengTeng Xu

Abstract

This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a GVAR model for five large Latin American economies shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three times since the mid-1990s, while the long-term impact of a US GDP shock has halved, while the transmission of shocks to Latin America and the rest of emerging Asia GDP (excluding China and India) has not changed. These changes owe more changes in China’s impact on Latin America’s traditional and largest trading partners than to increased direct bilateral trade linkages boosted by the decade-long commodity price boom. These findings have important implications for both Latin America and the international business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4732.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4732

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  1. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IDB Publications 6736, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
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  7. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus," Research Department Publications 4689, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  11. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  12. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859.
  13. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Examination of Some More Powerful Modifications of the Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 355-369, 05.
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  18. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2010. "Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 1239, European Central Bank.
  19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  20. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  23. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carolina Osorio & D. Filiz Unsal, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/257, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  3. Bailey, Natalia & Kapetanios, George & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2012. "Exponent of Cross-sectional Dependence: Estimation and Inference," IZA Discussion Papers 6318, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Working Papers 201346, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Winkelried, Diego & Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2013. "Socios comerciales y crecimiento en América Latina: Un enfoque SVAR dinámico," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 81-102.
  7. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Cashin, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1250, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
  10. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "The impact of economic shocks in the rest of the world on South Africa: Evidence from a global VAR," Working Papers 201328, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Bicu Andreea & Candelon Bertrand, 2012. "On the importance of indirect banking vulnerabilities in the Eurozone," Research Memorandum 033, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  13. Winkelried, Diego & Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2012. "Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: A time-varying SVAR approach," Working Papers 2012-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  14. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets - Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  16. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2012. "The Staggering Rise of the South?," Working Papers 2012/3, Turkish Economic Association.

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