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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

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  • Cashin, P.
  • Mohaddes, K.
  • Raissi, M.
  • Raissi, M.

Abstract

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1249.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1249

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Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

Related research

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR); interconnectedness; global macroeconomic modeling; impulse responses; international business cycle; oil-demand and oil-supply shocks.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Working Papers 2014-01, CEPII research center.
  2. Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach," Working Paper Series 981, African Development Bank.
  3. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2014. "Theory and practice of GVAR modeling," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 180, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  4. Cashin, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1250, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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