Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The role of credit in international business cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Xu, T.T.

Abstract

The recent financial crisis raises important issues about the role of credit in international business cycles and the transmission of financial shocks across country borders. This paper investigates the international spillover of US credit shocks and the importance of credit in explaining business cycle fluctuations using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with credit, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2006Q4 for 26 major advanced and emerging economies. Results from the country-specific models reveal the importance of bank credit in explaining output growth, changes in inflation and long term interest rates in countries with developed banking sector. The generalized impulse response function (GIRF) for a one standard error negative shock to US real credit provides strong evidence of the spillover of US credit shock to the UK, the Euro area, Japan and other industrialized economies.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1202.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1202.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 05 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1202

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  3. Ehrmann, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Martinéz Pagés, Jorge & Sevestre, Patrick & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0105, European Central Bank.
  4. Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos O. Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2007. "Financial Development, Openness and Institutions: Evidence from Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/05, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  5. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2007. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The euro area and US after 2001," Working Paper Series 0774, European Central Bank.
  6. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Dees, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V. & Smith, R.P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0803, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 71-105, 09.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  12. Kei-Mu Yi & M. Ayhan Kose, 2005. "Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?," IMF Working Papers 05/204, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ho, Tai-Kuang & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Levine, Ross, 1998. "The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 596-613, August.
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  17. Baltagi, Badi H. & Demetriades, Panicos O. & Law, Siong Hook, 2009. "Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 285-296, July.
  18. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
  20. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2008. "Banking globalization, monetary transmission and the lending channel," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  21. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 1999. "Finance and the sources of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2057, The World Bank.
  22. Gordon Fisher & Michael McAleer, 1981. "Alternative Procedures and Associated Tests of Significance for Non-Nested Hypotheses," Working Papers 420, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  23. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  24. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  25. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1987. "Global and Partial Non-Nested Hypotheses and Asymptotic Local Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 69-97, February.
  26. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro & Xu, TengTeng, 2011. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 5889, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  27. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  28. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
  29. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  30. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 04-6, Bank of Canada.
  31. Dastoor, Naorayex K., 1983. "Some aspects of testing non-nested hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-228, February.
  32. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
  33. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
  34. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe:A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  36. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 0708, European Central Bank.
  37. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
  39. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
  40. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  41. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November.
  42. Llanto, Gilberto M. & Intal, Ponciano Jr. S., 1998. "Financial Reform and Development in the Philippines, 1980-1997: Imperatives, Performance and Challenges," Discussion Papers DP 1998-02, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  43. P. Hiebert & I. Vansteenkiste, 2010. "International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: a GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3045-3066.
  44. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  45. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
  46. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
  2. Cesa-Bianchi, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A. & Xu, T., 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1150, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.