Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The role of credit in international business cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Xu, T.T.

Abstract

The recent financial crisis raises important issues about the role of credit in international business cycles and the transmission of financial shocks across country borders. This paper investigates the international spillover of US credit shocks and the importance of credit in explaining business cycle fluctuations using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with credit, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2006Q4 for 26 major advanced and emerging economies. Results from the country-specific models reveal the importance of bank credit in explaining output growth, changes in inflation and long term interest rates in countries with developed banking sector. The generalized impulse response function (GIRF) for a one standard error negative shock to US real credit provides strong evidence of the spillover of US credit shock to the UK, the Euro area, Japan and other industrialized economies.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/dae/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1202.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1202.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 05 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1202

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos O. Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2007. "Financial Development, Openness and Institutions: Evidence from Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/05, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2005. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Working Papers 05-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1987. "Global and Partial Non-Nested Hypotheses and Asymptotic Local Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 69-97, February.
  4. Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos O. Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2008. "Financial Development and Openness: Evidence from Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 107, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  5. Jürgen Von Hagen & Tai-Kuang Ho, 2007. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1037-1066, 08.
  6. Llanto, Gilberto M. & Intal, Ponciano Jr. S., 1998. "Financial Reform and Development in the Philippines, 1980-1997: Imperatives, Performance and Challenges," Discussion Papers DP 1998-02, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  7. Cesa-Bianchi, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A. & Xu, T., 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1150, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  12. Michael B Devereux & James Yetman, 2009. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  14. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Gregory de Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2008. "Financial (in)stability, supervision and liquidity injections: a dynamic general equilibrium approach," BCL working papers 35, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  17. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  18. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 04-6, Bank of Canada.
  19. Sevestre, Patrick & Martinez-Pages, Jorge & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Ehrmann, Michael & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Shocks, Structures or Monetary Policies? The Euro Area and US After 2001," NBER Working Papers 13521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23.
  22. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
  23. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
  24. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
  25. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  26. Paul Hiebert & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market; A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector," Working Paper Series 731, European Central Bank.
  27. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2008. "Banking globalization, monetary transmission and the lending channel," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  29. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe:A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
  31. Levine, Ross, 1998. "The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 596-613, August.
  32. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
  33. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  35. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US - lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 708, European Central Bank.
  37. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704.
  38. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
  39. Gordon Fisher & Michael McAleer, 1981. "Alternative Procedures and Associated Tests of Significance for Non-Nested Hypotheses," Working Papers 420, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  40. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  41. Dastoor, Naorayex K., 1983. "Some aspects of testing non-nested hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-228, February.
  42. Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
  43. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November.
  44. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Cesa-Bianchi, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A. & Xu, T., 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1150, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1202

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.