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Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch as a Result of Inefficient Financial Intermediation—with Reference to the Asian Financial Crisis

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  • Jorge A. Chan-Lau

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Zhaohui Chen

    (International Monetary Fund and CEPR)

Abstract

This paper develops a new model of international private debt financing. It shows the possibility of discontinuity in the amount of financial intermediation when the intermediary is inefficient. The model suggests a mechanism that can generate the following sequence of events: A period of relatively low capital flow despite a steady improvement in economic fundamentals (capital inflow inertia), followed by a fast buildup of capital inflow, and ended with a large capital outflow (crisis), as observed in the recent Asian financial crisis. In addition, there exists a minimum level of economic fundamental strength that can sustain large capital inflows. If the fundamental strength is not far above this minimum level, the economy will be vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment and to even a small deterioration of fundamentals. We use comparative statics to evaluate the pros and cons of various policy responses to the crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 9804001.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 1998
Date of revision: 24 Apr 1998
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9804001

Note: Type of Document - Postscript/Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC using MiKTeX 1.10; to print on HP Laser Jet; pages: 23 ; figures:2 included. Postscript version prepared using dvips5.76, pdf version prepared from postscript version with ps2pdf.
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Related research

Keywords: Financial crisis; Asian crisis; credit crunch; financial intermediary; capital flow; capital inflow inertia;

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References

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  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "Volatility and the welfare costs of financial market integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1974, The World Bank.
  2. John B. Shoven & Scott B. Smart & Joel Waldfogel, 1992. "Real Interest Rates and the Savings and Loan Crisis: The Moral Hazard Premium," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 155-167, Winter.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Zhaohui Chen, 2001. "Crash-Free Sequencing Strategies for Financial Development and Liberalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 7.
  7. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1996. "A Pecking Order Theory of Capital Inflows and International Tax Principles," CEPR Discussion Papers 1381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1992. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 115-30, August.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  15. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  16. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  17. Zhaohui Chen & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 97/13, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randy, 2002. "Financial crises, financial dependence, and industry growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2855, The World Bank.
  2. Hubert Gabrisch, 2002. "Financial fragility and exchange rate arrangements of EU candidate countries," IWH Discussion Papers 156, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2000. "Corporate Performance in the East Asian Financial Crisis," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(1), pages 23-46, February.
  5. Grzegorz W. Kolodko, 2001. "Postsocialist Transformation," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 147-159.
  6. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
  7. Grzegorz W. Kolodko, 2001. "La mutation post-socialiste," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 161-174.
  8. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Bhattacharya, Utpal, 2005. "Financial liberalization and the stability of currency pegs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 351-374, March.
  10. Mingwei Yuan & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "Credit Crunch in a Model of Financial Intermediation and Occupational Choice," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 97, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  11. Frederick Adjei, 2012. "Debt dependence and corporate performance in a financial crisis: evidence from the sub-prime mortgage crisis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 176-189, January.
  12. Piti Disyatat, 2001. "Currency Crises and the Real Economy," IMF Working Papers 01/49, International Monetary Fund.

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