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Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch as a Result of Inefficient Financial Intermediation—with Reference to the Asian Financial Crisis

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  • Jorge A. Chan-Lau

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Zhaohui Chen

    (International Monetary Fund and CEPR)

Abstract

This paper develops a new model of international private debt financing. It shows the possibility of discontinuity in the amount of financial intermediation when the intermediary is inefficient. The model suggests a mechanism that can generate the following sequence of events: A period of relatively low capital flow despite a steady improvement in economic fundamentals (capital inflow inertia), followed by a fast buildup of capital inflow, and ended with a large capital outflow (crisis), as observed in the recent Asian financial crisis. In addition, there exists a minimum level of economic fundamental strength that can sustain large capital inflows. If the fundamental strength is not far above this minimum level, the economy will be vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment and to even a small deterioration of fundamentals. We use comparative statics to evaluate the pros and cons of various policy responses to the crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 9804001.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 1998
Date of revision: 24 Apr 1998
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9804001

Note: Type of Document - Postscript/Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC using MiKTeX 1.10; to print on HP Laser Jet; pages: 23 ; figures:2 included. Postscript version prepared using dvips5.76, pdf version prepared from postscript version with ps2pdf.
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Financial crisis; Asian crisis; credit crunch; financial intermediary; capital flow; capital inflow inertia;

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References

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  1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  2. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "Volatility and the welfare costs of financial market integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1974, The World Bank.
  5. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  8. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Zhaohui Chen & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: A Theoretical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 97/13, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Chi-Wa Yuen & Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1996. "A Pecking Order Theory of Capital Inflows and International Tax Principles," IMF Working Papers 96/26, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  12. By Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Zhaohui Chen, 2001. "Crash-Free Sequencing Strategies for Financial Development and Liberalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 7.
  13. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1992. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 115-30, August.
  14. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  15. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion-Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  16. John B. Shoven & Scott B. Smart & Joel Waldfogel, 1992. "Real Interest Rates and the Savings and Loan Crisis: The Moral Hazard Premium," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 155-167, Winter.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
  2. Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randy, 2002. "Financial crises, financial dependence, and industry growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2855, The World Bank.
  3. Yuan, Mingwei & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "Credit crunch in a model of financial intermediation and occupational choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 637-659, December.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2000. "Corporate Performance in the East Asian Financial Crisis," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(1), pages 23-46, February.
  5. Frederick Adjei, 2012. "Debt dependence and corporate performance in a financial crisis: evidence from the sub-prime mortgage crisis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 176-189, January.
  6. Grzegorz W. Kolodko, 2001. "Postsocialist Transformation," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 147-159.
  7. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Piti Disyatat, 2002. "Currency Crises and the Real Economy: The Role of Banks," Working Papers 2002-08, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  9. Grzegorz W. Kolodko, 2001. "La mutation post-socialiste," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 161-174.
  10. Bhattacharya, Utpal, 2005. "Financial liberalization and the stability of currency pegs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 351-374, March.
  11. Hubert Gabrisch, 2002. "Financial fragility and exchange rate arrangements of EU candidate countries," IWH Discussion Papers 156, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
  13. Mingwei Yuan & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "Credit Crunch, Bank Lending and Monetary Policy: A Model of Financial Intermediation with Heterogeneous Projects," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 89, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.

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